GBPJPY Analysis

GBPJPY 4 hour chart - Waiting for the break.

GBPJPY Daily Chart - Sell target at 55-Day Simple MA.

GBP/JPY Update

Following my last post on GBPJPY titled 'what if', the pair had tested 135 level before turning back to its previous level. Current rate for this pair is 129.38, which is also at the support trendline. So far, there is no sign of reversal. Nonetheless, the price did find some support in this area. I would suggest a neutral view, with a possibility to rise further to the upper trendline. Closing below previous bottom would trigger bearish view. Other than that, the scenario for 141.20 area is still in play.

GBP/JPY Bounced Off 200 Day EMA

The recovery continued as high as 153.22 (near 23.6% Fib level of 118.80 to 163.06) before closing the week at 150.04, below 200 day EMA and neckline, and formed a shooting star candle. A top might be in place and the pair could test 139.7 again before 118.8, following the downtrend from 251.08 high.

However, it is still uptrend in smaller time frame and I suspect choppy movement toward the first retracement target at 146.46 (50% fib of 139.7 to 153.22), which should be provided by multiple trendlines below (check the hourly screenshot). Ok, have a nice weekend!

GBP/JPY 50% Fib at 151.38

Here is another setup on GBP/JPY. Above is the daily chart. Key S/R is at 146.72, below that level then the outlook change to bearish again. I entered long targeting 151.38 (50% Fib) and 154.14 (61.8% Fib). Ok that is all for now. Happy Trading!

Further Upside Next Week?

GBP/JPY H1 Chart

GBP/JPY D1 Chart

Above are GBP/JPY daily and hourly chart. Since last analysis, the pair had retraced as high as 144.51 and drop again to 141 area after the release of US unemployment data on Friday. However, huge buying at 141 area sent the pair flying to 142.85, eating up sellers who held their short position - just like me :( Anyway, short-term outlook is bullish with a reversal possibility based on the double bottom pattern. First test is 144.45 area and 145.22 next (23.6% retracement from 163.06 to 139.71). Downside should be limited by 141 support. Clear break below 141 will change the outlook to bearish again with 135.71 target.

Look For 149.40 Area

Above are British Pound/Yen 4 hour chart. The pair finally drop to 150.83 support on Friday after a breakout of its ascending triangle pattern, following a drop in dollar/yen. I'm relief that I have closed all my positions. However, I'm still looking for shorting the pair at resistance next week. The bear still in favor after it failed to take 153.3 resistance. Another support below 150.83 is around 149.4 area. Based on AB=CD projection, 146 area could also be a good target, which is near 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Have a nice weekend :)

Daily Chart

Above is the screenshot of GBP/JPY daily chart. The current uptrend from 118.80 may come to and end after reaching 163.06 on August 7. Drawing a fibonacci retracement from those bottom and top, we can see that the pair had closed below 23.6% level this week. We can also see that the broken support at 153.45 was tested today. Now it seems that we should anticipate further bearish for next week.

The next fibonacci level is th 38.2% retracement level at 146.16, near July 8 low at 146.74. However, the pair must break this week's low first at 151.05 before attempt to test 146.16/146.74 support area. I already have a position, entered at 151.73. It's floating in red now. And although I think that the pair could reach 38.2% level, I wouldn't wait until it reach that price to close my position. I'd prefer to enter another position later if there is any opportunity.