GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD Update

These are the update for GBP/JPY, Cable, and EUR/USD from my last tweet about chart setup.


The pair finally break a side after going sideway since it reach 132.00 low. I missed the first breakout of 134.02 but luckily I got another opportunity. The pair reached 2nd target (which is also the neckline) after NFP data released. I think we'll see corrective movement in hourly next week before it reach 50% fibo level (137.80). Otherwise we'll see a reversal signal and we can start selling the pair again ;)


GBP/USD
Cable still moving inside the corrective channel, support by 1.5000 level. I think we can still targeting the 50% fib level around 1.5300 next week. I have closed my position yesterday along with my GBP/JPY position. So I think I'm going to wait for a dip near the support channel before buying this pair.


EUR/USD
The euro still moving between 50% and 61.2% Fib level. I am just going to stay out of this pair until a significant break occurs.

GBP/JPY Near 113%, Cable Still In Range

Above is GBP/JPY 4 hour chart. It is pretty much the same with the one from the previous post. As expected, the pair went to 143.74 and tested 141 support again. However, it failed to break 141 area and reversed instead. The pair broken several resistance and now near 113% (yellow Fib) following the US unemployment release on Friday. Break of 113% (149.38) could bring the pair up to 23.6% level of 118.80 to 163.06 at 152.62. Failure to break this trendline could bring retracement to 146.20 area first, but I'll update on this since we don't see any sign of the top.

GBP/USD
Cable had a perfect negative correlation with GBP/JPY after the NFP release. The pair broke the support trendline and reached 1.6430 (38.2% level) before closing the week at 1.6474. I expect another ranging moves between that S/R lines (see chart) next week, at least until UK interest rate announcement.

GBP/USD And GBP/JPY Bounce From 50% Level

Cable has reached the target mentioned in previous post while GBP/JPY broke the TL and went further down to 140.93 support. I am expecting GBP/JPY retracement toward 143.74 and Cable ranging between 1.6292 and 1.6466. For the downside, break of current lows should target the next Fibonacci level which is 61.8%.

GBP/JPY and GBP/USD H1 Setup

Just a quick update for GBP/JPY and GBP/USD hourly chart setup before the week starts. GBP/USD reachead 50% retracement after went as high as 1.6843 on Monday.The pair bounced from the falling trendline on Friday and I plan to enter on trendline breakout. GBP/JPY had a similar move with GBP/USD, tested the resistance on Monday, tested the support after that, and closed near the week open. Anyway, the is the same with GBP/USD. Thats all. Have a nice day guys! oh one more thing, I can't upload the chart from blogger so click the links below ok..

http://pic.gd/ae7dfd
http://pic.gd/1b6e30

GBP/USD Bearish Scenario Next Week?

Strong recovery last week sent the pair as high as 1.6398. The pair broke the neckline again around 1.6200/30 and maintain trading above that level before closing at 1.6353. The pair almost touch the upper channel, where I placed my sell order. I would love to see a divergence scenario similar with the previous high reversal. Nevertheless, we might see consolidation first between 1.6430 and 1.6230. we should watch the neckline area closely for confirmation of bearish continuation.

GBP/USD H1 Setup

Ok..just a quick update. Above is GBP/USD hourly chart. I bought the pair targeting 1.6445, which is the D1 trendline (head to right shoulder). I 'll put my sell order there with tight SL. As for now, my SL is below 1.6222 (see screenshot for TLs and retracement level). All I need to do now is to follow the plan.

GBPUSD - Watch The Week Open

The pair closed below the trendline last week after consolidating between 1.577 and 1.6125 and touched the downtrend channel. The break indicates downtrend continuation to 1.57 area (38.2% Fib) and 1.52 area next (50% Fib). However, the pair must break 1.577 low first for confirmation. A break outside the channel might brings another consolidation or even a higher recovery above 1.6125. For now, we should wait and see the week open.

Remain Bearish Below 1.604

Above is GBP/USD daily chart. The pair is in consolidation after the huge fall to 1.5769. I'll keep my 1.5272 target as long the pair maintain below 1.604 in daily chart. However, support can be seen at 1.5769 and 1.569 (38.2% retracement). Break above 1.604 will target 1.6125 (30 Sept. high) and 1.6206 (23.6% retracement).

Cable Next Support At 1.5810

GBP/USD H1 Chart

GBP/USD D1 Chart

Above is Cable D1 chart. Since last post, the pound kept on losing against the yen following the break of 1.6130 support area. It reached 1.5915 on Friday and trade in 130 pips range to 1.6045. I add Fibonacci retracement from 1.6467 to 1.5915 (H1 chart) and the 38.2% and 50% level appear near the resistance trendlines. As for support levels, 100% projection of AB from C is shown in D1 chart, while the 100% projection from B is near the 161.8% projection and 50% Fibo of 1.3502 to 1.7042 at 1.5272. Trading plan for the week is still the same, selling GBP at resistance or support breakout, at least until 1.6100 area is breach. Another thing to consider is the NFP on Friday as sometimes the market become choppy prior to the release. Have a nice trading week :)

The Sterling Reach Support Area vs. Yen And Dollar

Above are Cable and GBP/JPY 4 hour charts. The British Pound had retraced and resume the fall against the Dollar and Yen since my last post. I have closed all positions now. A bounce is expected, but should be within the channel and below the broken support trendline (see charts). Below are the screenshots for both pairs before the drop (I intended to post the analysis before on Asian market but my connection failed me ;P). And don't forget to check my previous posts for mid-term downtrend target ok!

Cable And USD/JPY Retracement Analysis

Above is Cable 4 hour chart. The pair managed to touch the neckline/support before closing above 23.6% Fibo level again. A retracement for 50% of 'e' to 'f' is likely to happen. However, the pair need to get back inside the broken channel first. Other wise, clear break below neckline will surely trigger massive selling toward 1.569 (38.2% Fibo) and 1.5272 (50% Fibo).

As for USD/JPY, it managed to closed above 50 EMA after an unconvincing channel break late Friday last week. The pair went as high as 92.53 before bounced back to 92 area. If the first correction wave 'a' has finished at 92.53, wave 'b' is expected until 50% to 61.8% Fibo retracement of wave 'a' before completing the third and final correction wave.

Pound Still Under Pressure, Break Below Trendline

GBP/JPY H4 Chart

GBP/USD H4 Chart

Above are GBP/JPY and Cable 4 hour chart. I added a position for each pair following those breakout signals. Target for GBP/JPY is the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension, around 146.6. As for Cable, I plan to take profit at neckline area, and then open another position if the neckline breaks. However, I suspect strong buying at those target area. Anyway, 3 and a half hours left until the market close, and I don't think those pairs will reach the target today. So we'll see how they goes next week. Have a great weekend and Happy Idul Fitri! :)

Cable Break Below, Target @ 1.6325

Above is GBP/USD 4 hour chart. The pair break its trendline after making spikes in last 3 candles. I shorted it for 1.632 area (AB projection from C), about 120 pips from current price. There are several support actually before the 1.632 which are the Fibonacci retracement levels of 1.6113 (September 1st low) to 1.6741 (September 11th high). Current high at 1.6568 will be the stop loss area.

Cable Found Support, Wait For Breakout

Cable H4 Chart

Cable D1 Chart

Above are GBP/USD chart in daily and 4 hour time frame. The pair found support at 1.6427 target (see previous post), which is the 50% retracement of BC (purple dash Fibo). The trend is not clear although I still hope that the pair will at least reach the neckline. I plan to sell if it goes to the resistance are (risk area) or if the pair closed below 1.6427 in 4 hour chart. Have a nice day guys.

Cable Hit Resistance, Sell Now!

Cable H4 Chart

Cable D1 Chart

Above is Cable 4 hour chart. The pair bounce from 1.6688 resistance which I mentioned in my last Cable post. The resistance turns out to be the 61.8% retracement of 'A' to 'B'. I already enter a position near that resistance, targeting the 50% retracement of 'A' to 'B'. I also add Fibonacci of 'B' to 'C' (purple dash) to anticipate a breakout from the current uptrend channel.

Looking at bigger time frame, the pair could be forming head and shoulder reversal pattern. However, it must break the neckline to complete this pattern. If the neckline breaks, the target is the 50% Fibo retracement of 1.3502 low to 1.7042 at 1.5272, exactly 1382 pips from GBP/USD current price.

Expect A Breakout Today!

USD/JPY H4 Chart

GBP/USD H4 Chart

GBP/JPY H4 Chart

The British Pound/Yen is still in consolidation yesterday. Weak Dollar push Cable to 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.7042 to 1.6113 and sent USD/JPY to its support, while GBP/JPY stucked in tightening range. GBP/JPY kept on making lower highs and higher lows and form a symmetrical triangle pattern, which should breakout soon.

Furthermore, USD/JPY could continue it bearish movement after breaking 92.05 support. Cable could also fall today as long it doesn't break 50% Fibonacci resistance (1.6577). I already have a few shorts on GBP/JPY, so I really really reaallyyy hope that the pair will fall down today. My first target is 150.83 support (Friday's low) and 149.36 next. Wish me luck! And happy trading :)

Cable Outlook Update

Above is GBP/USD 4 hour chart. The pair did not resume its downtrend and forced me to cut loss my short position :( The pair did make a lower low at 1.6113 but the rallied to a 6-days high at 1.6413. The pair also broke 2 trendlines in the process. It tested the support-turns-resistance trendline for fourth time before closing at 1.6390 last Friday. The analysis still suggest bearish outlook as long as the resistance trendline holds. Ok, the market wil be open in a few minutes. Happy trading!

GBP/USD Daily & H4 Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD H4 Chart

Above is Cable daily and 4 hour chart with trendlines and fibonacci. The pair bounce from 23.6% retracement might find its top if the resistance trenline holds. I think I see a flag pattern in progress in 4 hour chart. I also draw the target projection around 38.2% retracement. This strengthen my GBP/JPY analysis also as I still look at the whole thing as downtrend.