GBP/USD H4 and Daily Chart, Buy Now

My setup from my previous post didn't play right although the pair did made a lower low. Cable tested the 1.4781 support and reached as far as 1.4797. On daily chart, the candlestick make a reversal pattern (forgot what they call that pattern :P) and still forming a divergence in both 4-hour and daily chart. However, confirmation for uptrend in 4-hour time frame is above 1.5381. If you aggressive enough, you can buy now with stop loss below 1.4781, targeting 1.5381 first and 1.5581 (38.2% retracement of 1.6877 to 1.4781) after that. That is all. Have a nice weekend guys!

GBP/USD And GBP/JPY Bounce From 50% Level

Cable has reached the target mentioned in previous post while GBP/JPY broke the TL and went further down to 140.93 support. I am expecting GBP/JPY retracement toward 143.74 and Cable ranging between 1.6292 and 1.6466. For the downside, break of current lows should target the next Fibonacci level which is 61.8%.

Cable: Wait For Retracement Or Below 38.2%

After making a higher high from the previous week and formed double top formation, Cable broke the trendline/target from my previous post and touched 5th Nov low before closing at 1.6500. I think the pair will definitely test this month low at 1.6261 near 50% Fib level and the another support trendline.

Entry
I am anticipating 2 scenario of retracement toward the broken trendline: a lower low to 38.2% level at 1.6430 first or straight retracement to test the broken trendline near 23.6% level at 1.6601. The third scenario is a smooth move to 1.6300 area. So, I will enter short near 1.66 if Cable retrace or below 38.2% Fibonacci at 1.6430, 70 pips from current price.

Cable Back to 1.629 Area?

GBP/USD break the rising trendline on daily chart early today. The pair currently testing the 13th November low after closing below 13-day EMA on 4 hour chart. Next support is the white trendline connecting the 5th and 12th November lows. If the pair sustain below that support, we might see the pair goes to 1.6280/90 support (lime green).

GBP/USD Bearish Scenario Next Week?

Strong recovery last week sent the pair as high as 1.6398. The pair broke the neckline again around 1.6200/30 and maintain trading above that level before closing at 1.6353. The pair almost touch the upper channel, where I placed my sell order. I would love to see a divergence scenario similar with the previous high reversal. Nevertheless, we might see consolidation first between 1.6430 and 1.6230. we should watch the neckline area closely for confirmation of bearish continuation.

GBPUSD - Watch The Week Open

The pair closed below the trendline last week after consolidating between 1.577 and 1.6125 and touched the downtrend channel. The break indicates downtrend continuation to 1.57 area (38.2% Fib) and 1.52 area next (50% Fib). However, the pair must break 1.577 low first for confirmation. A break outside the channel might brings another consolidation or even a higher recovery above 1.6125. For now, we should wait and see the week open.

Cable Next Support At 1.5810

GBP/USD H1 Chart

GBP/USD D1 Chart

Above is Cable D1 chart. Since last post, the pound kept on losing against the yen following the break of 1.6130 support area. It reached 1.5915 on Friday and trade in 130 pips range to 1.6045. I add Fibonacci retracement from 1.6467 to 1.5915 (H1 chart) and the 38.2% and 50% level appear near the resistance trendlines. As for support levels, 100% projection of AB from C is shown in D1 chart, while the 100% projection from B is near the 161.8% projection and 50% Fibo of 1.3502 to 1.7042 at 1.5272. Trading plan for the week is still the same, selling GBP at resistance or support breakout, at least until 1.6100 area is breach. Another thing to consider is the NFP on Friday as sometimes the market become choppy prior to the release. Have a nice trading week :)

The Sterling Reach Support Area vs. Yen And Dollar

Above are Cable and GBP/JPY 4 hour charts. The British Pound had retraced and resume the fall against the Dollar and Yen since my last post. I have closed all positions now. A bounce is expected, but should be within the channel and below the broken support trendline (see charts). Below are the screenshots for both pairs before the drop (I intended to post the analysis before on Asian market but my connection failed me ;P). And don't forget to check my previous posts for mid-term downtrend target ok!

Cable And USD/JPY Retracement Analysis

Above is Cable 4 hour chart. The pair managed to touch the neckline/support before closing above 23.6% Fibo level again. A retracement for 50% of 'e' to 'f' is likely to happen. However, the pair need to get back inside the broken channel first. Other wise, clear break below neckline will surely trigger massive selling toward 1.569 (38.2% Fibo) and 1.5272 (50% Fibo).

As for USD/JPY, it managed to closed above 50 EMA after an unconvincing channel break late Friday last week. The pair went as high as 92.53 before bounced back to 92 area. If the first correction wave 'a' has finished at 92.53, wave 'b' is expected until 50% to 61.8% Fibo retracement of wave 'a' before completing the third and final correction wave.

Pound Still Under Pressure, Break Below Trendline

GBP/JPY H4 Chart

GBP/USD H4 Chart

Above are GBP/JPY and Cable 4 hour chart. I added a position for each pair following those breakout signals. Target for GBP/JPY is the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension, around 146.6. As for Cable, I plan to take profit at neckline area, and then open another position if the neckline breaks. However, I suspect strong buying at those target area. Anyway, 3 and a half hours left until the market close, and I don't think those pairs will reach the target today. So we'll see how they goes next week. Have a great weekend and Happy Idul Fitri! :)

Cable Hit Resistance, Sell Now!

Cable H4 Chart

Cable D1 Chart

Above is Cable 4 hour chart. The pair bounce from 1.6688 resistance which I mentioned in my last Cable post. The resistance turns out to be the 61.8% retracement of 'A' to 'B'. I already enter a position near that resistance, targeting the 50% retracement of 'A' to 'B'. I also add Fibonacci of 'B' to 'C' (purple dash) to anticipate a breakout from the current uptrend channel.

Looking at bigger time frame, the pair could be forming head and shoulder reversal pattern. However, it must break the neckline to complete this pattern. If the neckline breaks, the target is the 50% Fibo retracement of 1.3502 low to 1.7042 at 1.5272, exactly 1382 pips from GBP/USD current price.

Expect A Breakout Today!

USD/JPY H4 Chart

GBP/USD H4 Chart

GBP/JPY H4 Chart

The British Pound/Yen is still in consolidation yesterday. Weak Dollar push Cable to 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.7042 to 1.6113 and sent USD/JPY to its support, while GBP/JPY stucked in tightening range. GBP/JPY kept on making lower highs and higher lows and form a symmetrical triangle pattern, which should breakout soon.

Furthermore, USD/JPY could continue it bearish movement after breaking 92.05 support. Cable could also fall today as long it doesn't break 50% Fibonacci resistance (1.6577). I already have a few shorts on GBP/JPY, so I really really reaallyyy hope that the pair will fall down today. My first target is 150.83 support (Friday's low) and 149.36 next. Wish me luck! And happy trading :)

Cable Outlook Update

Above is GBP/USD 4 hour chart. The pair did not resume its downtrend and forced me to cut loss my short position :( The pair did make a lower low at 1.6113 but the rallied to a 6-days high at 1.6413. The pair also broke 2 trendlines in the process. It tested the support-turns-resistance trendline for fourth time before closing at 1.6390 last Friday. The analysis still suggest bearish outlook as long as the resistance trendline holds. Ok, the market wil be open in a few minutes. Happy trading!

GBP/USD Daily & H4 Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD H4 Chart

Above is Cable daily and 4 hour chart with trendlines and fibonacci. The pair bounce from 23.6% retracement might find its top if the resistance trenline holds. I think I see a flag pattern in progress in 4 hour chart. I also draw the target projection around 38.2% retracement. This strengthen my GBP/JPY analysis also as I still look at the whole thing as downtrend.