Monday, September 28, 2009

Reached 141 Target, 135.71 Next

GBP/JPY H4 Chart

GBP/JPY finally reached the 141 area target which is the 50% retracement of 118.80 to 163.06. The pair actually reached as low as 139.71, slightly breached the 200% Fibonacci extension of a-b-c. At the moment, the pair is trying to break its 23.6% retracement of 150.36 to 139.71 at 142.23 while 38.2% and 50% retracement levels are at 143.78 and 145.03 respectively. After so much pips down, a retracement toward 145 is very likely, although I will wait until it breaks current resistance. The outlook for GBPJPY is still bearish with 135.71 (61.8% retracement) as target after breaking 139.71 current low.

Cable Next Support At 1.5810

GBP/USD H1 Chart

GBP/USD D1 Chart

Above is Cable D1 chart. Since last post, the pound kept on losing against the yen following the break of 1.6130 support area. It reached 1.5915 on Friday and trade in 130 pips range to 1.6045. I add Fibonacci retracement from 1.6467 to 1.5915 (H1 chart) and the 38.2% and 50% level appear near the resistance trendlines. As for support levels, 100% projection of AB from C is shown in D1 chart, while the 100% projection from B is near the 161.8% projection and 50% Fibo of 1.3502 to 1.7042 at 1.5272. Trading plan for the week is still the same, selling GBP at resistance or support breakout, at least until 1.6100 area is breach. Another thing to consider is the NFP on Friday as sometimes the market become choppy prior to the release. Have a nice trading week :)

Sunday, September 27, 2009

USD/JPY Is On Its Way To Test 87.12

USD/JPY H1 Chart

USD/JPY H4 Chart


Above are USD/JPY monthly, 4 hour, and hourly charts. Since the previous analysis, the pair retraced as high as 92.53 before breaking 90 key support level. I added new channels for the pair as shown in 4 hour chart and H1 chart, and trendlines in monthly chart. The pair bounced and stay within 89.51 and 89.93 range before closing at 89.62 on Friday. I suggest careful approach to enter short position (wait for the break) in case of strong buying on the weak dollar. However, the direction is crystal clear on higher time frames with first support at 87.12 and 79.75 (1995 low) after that.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

The Sterling Reach Support Area vs. Yen And Dollar

Above are Cable and GBP/JPY 4 hour charts. The British Pound had retraced and resume the fall against the Dollar and Yen since my last post. I have closed all positions now. A bounce is expected, but should be within the channel and below the broken support trendline (see charts). Below are the screenshots for both pairs before the drop (I intended to post the analysis before on Asian market but my connection failed me ;P). And don't forget to check my previous posts for mid-term downtrend target ok!

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Cable And USD/JPY Retracement Analysis

Above is Cable 4 hour chart. The pair managed to touch the neckline/support before closing above 23.6% Fibo level again. A retracement for 50% of 'e' to 'f' is likely to happen. However, the pair need to get back inside the broken channel first. Other wise, clear break below neckline will surely trigger massive selling toward 1.569 (38.2% Fibo) and 1.5272 (50% Fibo).

As for USD/JPY, it managed to closed above 50 EMA after an unconvincing channel break late Friday last week. The pair went as high as 92.53 before bounced back to 92 area. If the first correction wave 'a' has finished at 92.53, wave 'b' is expected until 50% to 61.8% Fibo retracement of wave 'a' before completing the third and final correction wave.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Pound Still Under Pressure, Break Below Trendline

GBP/JPY H4 Chart

GBP/USD H4 Chart

Above are GBP/JPY and Cable 4 hour chart. I added a position for each pair following those breakout signals. Target for GBP/JPY is the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension, around 146.6. As for Cable, I plan to take profit at neckline area, and then open another position if the neckline breaks. However, I suspect strong buying at those target area. Anyway, 3 and a half hours left until the market close, and I don't think those pairs will reach the target today. So we'll see how they goes next week. Have a great weekend and Happy Idul Fitri! :)

Friday, September 18, 2009

USD/JPY Touched Resistance Channel/Trendline

Above is USD/JPY 4 hour chart. Strong buying at 90.20 area sent the pair back to its previous level around 91.60 before closing below 50 EMA and within the downtrend channel. 15 minutes to candle close, the pair seems to trapped between the channel and a broken trendline below. Volatility is low until a breakout occurs. 91.72 (50% Fibo) could trigger another selling if the pair breaks the resistance trendline. I the opposite, USD/JPY should test 90.20 support again.

Cable Break Below, Target @ 1.6325

Above is GBP/USD 4 hour chart. The pair break its trendline after making spikes in last 3 candles. I shorted it for 1.632 area (AB projection from C), about 120 pips from current price. There are several support actually before the 1.632 which are the Fibonacci retracement levels of 1.6113 (September 1st low) to 1.6741 (September 11th high). Current high at 1.6568 will be the stop loss area.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

1st Target Reached, 146 Next

Above is GBP/JPY 4 hour chart. The pound lose further since my last post and reached 1st target at 149.4 area, 149.44 to be precise. The bearish movement could continue today following the trendline break (see chart). However, the pair must close below 149.40 support first. Furthermore, 161.8% extension of the last movement (1-2-3) is near the second target mentioned in previous post, which is around 146. See the screenshot for support levels. Happy trading :)

Cable Found Support, Wait For Breakout

Cable H4 Chart

Cable D1 Chart

Above are GBP/USD chart in daily and 4 hour time frame. The pair found support at 1.6427 target (see previous post), which is the 50% retracement of BC (purple dash Fibo). The trend is not clear although I still hope that the pair will at least reach the neckline. I plan to sell if it goes to the resistance are (risk area) or if the pair closed below 1.6427 in 4 hour chart. Have a nice day guys.

USD/JPY Could Be On The Move To Test Support

Above is USD/JPY 4 hour chart. The pair resumed the downtrend until 90.2 before retracing as high as 91.63 today. As we can see from the chart, there seems to be a breakout of its retracement channel. The pattern almost identical with prior retracement. There is still some room above to 91.75 - 92.11 area, which are 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement respectively. Meanwhile, I believe that 90.20 support will be though to break. Nevertheless, I already shorted the pair at 90.97 for 60 pips. Wish me luck!

Monday, September 14, 2009

Cable Hit Resistance, Sell Now!

Cable H4 Chart
Cable D1 Chart

Above is Cable 4 hour chart. The pair bounce from 1.6688 resistance which I mentioned in my last Cable post. The resistance turns out to be the 61.8% retracement of 'A' to 'B'. I already enter a position near that resistance, targeting the 50% retracement of 'A' to 'B'. I also add Fibonacci of 'B' to 'C' (purple dash) to anticipate a breakout from the current uptrend channel.

Looking at bigger time frame, the pair could be forming head and shoulder reversal pattern. However, it must break the neckline to complete this pattern. If the neckline breaks, the target is the 50% Fibo retracement of 1.3502 low to 1.7042 at 1.5272, exactly 1382 pips from GBP/USD current price.

Sunday, September 13, 2009

Look For 149.40 Area

Above are British Pound/Yen 4 hour chart. The pair finally drop to 150.83 support on Friday after a breakout of its ascending triangle pattern, following a drop in dollar/yen. I'm relief that I have closed all my positions. However, I'm still looking for shorting the pair at resistance next week. The bear still in favor after it failed to take 153.3 resistance. Another support below 150.83 is around 149.4 area. Based on AB=CD projection, 146 area could also be a good target, which is near 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Have a nice weekend :)

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Sellers, Hold Your Ground!

GBP/JPY surge about a hundred pips as the British Pound gains against the weak Dollar. I added a trendline for GBP/JPY and find that it is now testing the resistance. I still hold my short position for another test to support.

Expect A Breakout Today!

USD/JPY H4 Chart
GBP/USD H4 Chart
GBP/JPY H4 Chart

The British Pound/Yen is still in consolidation yesterday. Weak Dollar push Cable to 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.7042 to 1.6113 and sent USD/JPY to its support, while GBP/JPY stucked in tightening range. GBP/JPY kept on making lower highs and higher lows and form a symmetrical triangle pattern, which should breakout soon.

Furthermore, USD/JPY could continue it bearish movement after breaking 92.05 support. Cable could also fall today as long it doesn't break 50% Fibonacci resistance (1.6577). I already have a few shorts on GBP/JPY, so I really really reaallyyy hope that the pair will fall down today. My first target is 150.83 support (Friday's low) and 149.36 next. Wish me luck! And happy trading :)

Tuesday, September 08, 2009

Pound/Yen Update: Wait For Breakout

The pair went as high as 153.24 yesterday before going back below 23.6% Fibonacci level of 118.8 to 163.06. The Pound weakened further then against the Yen and found support at 151.58. Another possible support below that level is around 150.85 (Friday's low). Although I expect the downtrend will continue this week, it might be wiser to wait for breakout below 150.85 and profit target at 149.35 area (last week's low) first and 146.74 after that (July 8th low near 38.2% Fibonacci level). Key resistance remains at 153.45 broken support.

Monday, September 07, 2009

Cable Outlook Update

Above is GBP/USD 4 hour chart. The pair did not resume its downtrend and forced me to cut loss my short position :( The pair did make a lower low at 1.6113 but the rallied to a 6-days high at 1.6413. The pair also broke 2 trendlines in the process. It tested the support-turns-resistance trendline for fourth time before closing at 1.6390 last Friday. The analysis still suggest bearish outlook as long as the resistance trendline holds. Ok, the market wil be open in a few minutes. Happy trading!

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Sunday, September 06, 2009

Dollar Bounce After 2nd Target Against Yen

USD/JPY H4 Chart

USD/JPY D1 Chart

Above are Dollar/Yen 4 hour and daily charts. The pair reached the second mentioned in the previous post at 92.24 after breaking the support at 92.54. The 92.24 support triggered strong buying on dollar. The pair went back above 92.24 which now provide support again.

The pair now seems to trapped between low-range support and resistance trendlines with bearish outlook while the price remains below 93.42 resistance. Above 93.42 will suggest a move toward 50% Fibo level at 94.28 near 50 day EMA. The target downside is the 23.6% Fibo level at 90.50 after AB projection at 91.48.

Friday, September 04, 2009

Bounce From Target

Above is the GBP/JPY 4 hour chart. The pair reached the target mentioned in my previous post (projection of AB) at 149.34 (see previous post). The pair bounced and touch the resistance trendline, near 30 EMA in 4 hour chart. Resistance level is still the same (see resistance) with support now at the previous low.

Wednesday, September 02, 2009

USD/JPY Pattern Breakout

USD/JPY H4 Chart

USD/JPY H1 Chart
Above are the USD/JPY 4 hour and hourly charts. The Dollar/Yen breaks have just breaks its ascending triangle pattern. I am expecting that the downtrend resumes through the rest of US session and later in Asia session. I have identify several possible support levels for targets which are 92.54 (Monday's low) first, 92.24 area next (projection of BC), and 91.48 area last (projection of AB). Break above the resistance trendline will change the outlook back to neutral.

Tuesday, September 01, 2009

GBP/USD Daily & H4 Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD H4 Chart

Above is Cable daily and 4 hour chart with trendlines and fibonacci. The pair bounce from 23.6% retracement might find its top if the resistance trenline holds. I think I see a flag pattern in progress in 4 hour chart. I also draw the target projection around 38.2% retracement. This strengthen my GBP/JPY analysis also as I still look at the whole thing as downtrend.

Added More Trendlines in H4 Chart

Above is the screenshot of the current Pound/Yen 4 hour chart with some added trendlines. The circles mark the points which connect the trendlines. As we can see, the strong retracement of the current downtrend is still in favor while resistance still remain at 153.45 and 154.70 area. On the downside, I guess we'll see any development later on US session.