Monday, December 07, 2009

GBP/JPY Reached 23.6% Retracement

The pair has retraced 23.6% of 139.26 to 149.14 at 146.81. There are several support level here, broken trendline and 38.2% level of 118.80 to 163.06 (blue Fib) at 146.16. Break of these support levels should target 50% and 61.8% level. On the upside, first resistance is the falling trendline before testing 149.14 high.

Saturday, December 05, 2009

GBP/JPY Near 113%, Cable Still In Range

Above is GBP/JPY 4 hour chart. It is pretty much the same with the one from the previous post. As expected, the pair went to 143.74 and tested 141 support again. However, it failed to break 141 area and reversed instead. The pair broken several resistance and now near 113% (yellow Fib) following the US unemployment release on Friday. Break of 113% (149.38) could bring the pair up to 23.6% level of 118.80 to 163.06 at 152.62. Failure to break this trendline could bring retracement to 146.20 area first, but I'll update on this since we don't see any sign of the top.

Cable had a perfect negative correlation with GBP/JPY after the NFP release. The pair broke the support trendline and reached 1.6430 (38.2% level) before closing the week at 1.6474. I expect another ranging moves between that S/R lines (see chart) next week, at least until UK interest rate announcement.

Friday, November 27, 2009

GBP/USD And GBP/JPY Bounce From 50% Level

Cable has reached the target mentioned in previous post while GBP/JPY broke the TL and went further down to 140.93 support. I am expecting GBP/JPY retracement toward 143.74 and Cable ranging between 1.6292 and 1.6466. For the downside, break of current lows should target the next Fibonacci level which is 61.8%.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Cable: Wait For Retracement Or Below 38.2%

After making a higher high from the previous week and formed double top formation, Cable broke the trendline/target from my previous post and touched 5th Nov low before closing at 1.6500. I think the pair will definitely test this month low at 1.6261 near 50% Fib level and the another support trendline.

I am anticipating 2 scenario of retracement toward the broken trendline: a lower low to 38.2% level at 1.6430 first or straight retracement to test the broken trendline near 23.6% level at 1.6601. The third scenario is a smooth move to 1.6300 area. So, I will enter short near 1.66 if Cable retrace or below 38.2% Fibonacci at 1.6430, 70 pips from current price.

Friday, November 20, 2009

GBP/JPY Targeting The Lower Trendline

The Pound lose against the Yen to 147.31, following the triangle break and 148.40 support. My key support level is around 146.46/74 (near 50% level of 139.70 to 153.22), which is my target for current position. Next target is the rising trendline from daily chart near 61.8% level at 144.86.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Cable Back to 1.629 Area?

GBP/USD break the rising trendline on daily chart early today. The pair currently testing the 13th November low after closing below 13-day EMA on 4 hour chart. Next support is the white trendline connecting the 5th and 12th November lows. If the pair sustain below that support, we might see the pair goes to 1.6280/90 support (lime green).

Sunday, November 15, 2009

GBP/JPY and GBP/USD H1 Setup

Just a quick update for GBP/JPY and GBP/USD hourly chart setup before the week starts. GBP/USD reachead 50% retracement after went as high as 1.6843 on Monday.The pair bounced from the falling trendline on Friday and I plan to enter on trendline breakout. GBP/JPY had a similar move with GBP/USD, tested the resistance on Monday, tested the support after that, and closed near the week open. Anyway, the is the same with GBP/USD. Thats all. Have a nice day guys! oh one more thing, I can't upload the chart from blogger so click the links below ok..

Thursday, October 29, 2009

38.2% Target Reached, 50% Next

From last post, GBP/JPY finally reached target at 148.06 (38.2% retracement) after 3 days. It crossed above initial SL actually but remained below the neckline. The pair bounced after slightly breached the 38.2% level as high as 149.29 now and touched the falling trendline. I shorted the pair at 149.17 targeting the 50% level at 146.46. Notice that that level set near 38.2% level of 118.8 to 163.06. I put my initial stop loss around 149.7.

Monday, October 26, 2009

GBP/JPY Short Signal

Ok, just a quick update. The pair currently testing the 55 hour EMA and trendline in hourly. I took a short position at 149.77 and again at 150.20 targeting 38.2% retracement at 148.06. Stop loss above the swing high and white trendline. Happy trading!

Sunday, October 25, 2009

GBP/JPY Bounced Off 200 Day EMA

The recovery continued as high as 153.22 (near 23.6% Fib level of 118.80 to 163.06) before closing the week at 150.04, below 200 day EMA and neckline, and formed a shooting star candle. A top might be in place and the pair could test 139.7 again before 118.8, following the downtrend from 251.08 high.

However, it is still uptrend in smaller time frame and I suspect choppy movement toward the first retracement target at 146.46 (50% fib of 139.7 to 153.22), which should be provided by multiple trendlines below (check the hourly screenshot). Ok, have a nice weekend!

Thursday, October 22, 2009

GBP/JPY Breakout Target Reached

Above are GBP/JPY H4 and H1 chart. From last post, the pair finally break above resistance and has reached target - which is the range of the sideways. I drew trendline on weekly chart and this could be the time for some significant fall, at least to test the 149.35 support. Below the rising trendline on H4 chart then we can target 146.71 support near.

Monday, October 19, 2009

GBP/JPY: Wait For Breakout

Above are GBP/JPY H4 and H1 chart respectively. The pair opened below H1 trendline just now after consolidation on Friday. Hourly trend is up, and a further retracement from Friday's high (149.27) can't be ruled out. Another possible scenario is to make a higher high to test the broken neckline on daily chart (around 150.80) before testing the 146.72 support. Well, nothing much I can say. Break of 149.27 or 146.72 would give a clearer view. I just hope it will happen soon. The longer I wait, the more likely I snap and flip a coin for long or short! ;p

Sunday, October 18, 2009

USD/JPY Hourly Setup

This is my USD/JPY setup on hourly chart from last Friday. The pair has failed to sustain above 23.6% level of 101.43 to 88.00 (blue Fibonacci). Target for the retracement is around 90.33 support, which I suspect will bring another round for consolidation if not break below. Check the screenshot.

GBP/USD Bearish Scenario Next Week?

Strong recovery last week sent the pair as high as 1.6398. The pair broke the neckline again around 1.6200/30 and maintain trading above that level before closing at 1.6353. The pair almost touch the upper channel, where I placed my sell order. I would love to see a divergence scenario similar with the previous high reversal. Nevertheless, we might see consolidation first between 1.6430 and 1.6230. we should watch the neckline area closely for confirmation of bearish continuation.

Friday, October 16, 2009

GBP/JPY 50% Fib at 151.38

Here is another setup on GBP/JPY. Above is the daily chart. Key S/R is at 146.72, below that level then the outlook change to bearish again. I entered long targeting 151.38 (50% Fib) and 154.14 (61.8% Fib). Ok that is all for now. Happy Trading!

GBP/USD H1 Setup

Ok..just a quick update. Above is GBP/USD hourly chart. I bought the pair targeting 1.6445, which is the D1 trendline (head to right shoulder). I 'll put my sell order there with tight SL. As for now, my SL is below 1.6222 (see screenshot for TLs and retracement level). All I need to do now is to follow the plan.

Monday, October 12, 2009

USDJPY at H4 Resistance Channel

Dollar recovery continued since the market open this week and now has touched 90 resistance area which is also the H4 downtrend channel and 78.6% Fib level of 97.78 to 88.00. I decided to short the Dollar against Yen with stop above the channel. First support can be seen at the week open at 89.5 and the 88.6% Fibo level at 89.12.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

GBPUSD - Watch The Week Open

The pair closed below the trendline last week after consolidating between 1.577 and 1.6125 and touched the downtrend channel. The break indicates downtrend continuation to 1.57 area (38.2% Fib) and 1.52 area next (50% Fib). However, the pair must break 1.577 low first for confirmation. A break outside the channel might brings another consolidation or even a higher recovery above 1.6125. For now, we should wait and see the week open.

Lower Low And Lower High In Hourly

The pair closed at 142.21 last week after. The pair failed to take out 143 resistance and the H4 channel remained intact. The trend in H1 chart is still bullish derived from 30/50 EMA and QQE above 50. However, GBP/JPY did make a LL and LH, which may be an early signal of a downtrend continuation. Immediate support can be seen at 141.6 area while resistance is at 142.9 area. Take a look at the screenshot for trendlines and breakout target. Ok thats all. It's FOOTBALL TIME! ;) Hace a nice weekend guys!

Tuesday, October 06, 2009

Remain Bearish Below 1.604

Above is GBP/USD daily chart. The pair is in consolidation after the huge fall to 1.5769. I'll keep my 1.5272 target as long the pair maintain below 1.604 in daily chart. However, support can be seen at 1.5769 and 1.569 (38.2% retracement). Break above 1.604 will target 1.6125 (30 Sept. high) and 1.6206 (23.6% retracement).

Sunday, October 04, 2009

Further Upside Next Week?

GBP/JPY H1 Chart

GBP/JPY D1 Chart

Above are GBP/JPY daily and hourly chart. Since last analysis, the pair had retraced as high as 144.51 and drop again to 141 area after the release of US unemployment data on Friday. However, huge buying at 141 area sent the pair flying to 142.85, eating up sellers who held their short position - just like me :( Anyway, short-term outlook is bullish with a reversal possibility based on the double bottom pattern. First test is 144.45 area and 145.22 next (23.6% retracement from 163.06 to 139.71). Downside should be limited by 141 support. Clear break below 141 will change the outlook to bearish again with 135.71 target.

Monday, September 28, 2009

Reached 141 Target, 135.71 Next

GBP/JPY H4 Chart

GBP/JPY finally reached the 141 area target which is the 50% retracement of 118.80 to 163.06. The pair actually reached as low as 139.71, slightly breached the 200% Fibonacci extension of a-b-c. At the moment, the pair is trying to break its 23.6% retracement of 150.36 to 139.71 at 142.23 while 38.2% and 50% retracement levels are at 143.78 and 145.03 respectively. After so much pips down, a retracement toward 145 is very likely, although I will wait until it breaks current resistance. The outlook for GBPJPY is still bearish with 135.71 (61.8% retracement) as target after breaking 139.71 current low.

Cable Next Support At 1.5810

GBP/USD H1 Chart

GBP/USD D1 Chart

Above is Cable D1 chart. Since last post, the pound kept on losing against the yen following the break of 1.6130 support area. It reached 1.5915 on Friday and trade in 130 pips range to 1.6045. I add Fibonacci retracement from 1.6467 to 1.5915 (H1 chart) and the 38.2% and 50% level appear near the resistance trendlines. As for support levels, 100% projection of AB from C is shown in D1 chart, while the 100% projection from B is near the 161.8% projection and 50% Fibo of 1.3502 to 1.7042 at 1.5272. Trading plan for the week is still the same, selling GBP at resistance or support breakout, at least until 1.6100 area is breach. Another thing to consider is the NFP on Friday as sometimes the market become choppy prior to the release. Have a nice trading week :)

Sunday, September 27, 2009

USD/JPY Is On Its Way To Test 87.12

USD/JPY H1 Chart

USD/JPY H4 Chart


Above are USD/JPY monthly, 4 hour, and hourly charts. Since the previous analysis, the pair retraced as high as 92.53 before breaking 90 key support level. I added new channels for the pair as shown in 4 hour chart and H1 chart, and trendlines in monthly chart. The pair bounced and stay within 89.51 and 89.93 range before closing at 89.62 on Friday. I suggest careful approach to enter short position (wait for the break) in case of strong buying on the weak dollar. However, the direction is crystal clear on higher time frames with first support at 87.12 and 79.75 (1995 low) after that.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

The Sterling Reach Support Area vs. Yen And Dollar

Above are Cable and GBP/JPY 4 hour charts. The British Pound had retraced and resume the fall against the Dollar and Yen since my last post. I have closed all positions now. A bounce is expected, but should be within the channel and below the broken support trendline (see charts). Below are the screenshots for both pairs before the drop (I intended to post the analysis before on Asian market but my connection failed me ;P). And don't forget to check my previous posts for mid-term downtrend target ok!

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Cable And USD/JPY Retracement Analysis

Above is Cable 4 hour chart. The pair managed to touch the neckline/support before closing above 23.6% Fibo level again. A retracement for 50% of 'e' to 'f' is likely to happen. However, the pair need to get back inside the broken channel first. Other wise, clear break below neckline will surely trigger massive selling toward 1.569 (38.2% Fibo) and 1.5272 (50% Fibo).

As for USD/JPY, it managed to closed above 50 EMA after an unconvincing channel break late Friday last week. The pair went as high as 92.53 before bounced back to 92 area. If the first correction wave 'a' has finished at 92.53, wave 'b' is expected until 50% to 61.8% Fibo retracement of wave 'a' before completing the third and final correction wave.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Pound Still Under Pressure, Break Below Trendline

GBP/JPY H4 Chart

GBP/USD H4 Chart

Above are GBP/JPY and Cable 4 hour chart. I added a position for each pair following those breakout signals. Target for GBP/JPY is the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension, around 146.6. As for Cable, I plan to take profit at neckline area, and then open another position if the neckline breaks. However, I suspect strong buying at those target area. Anyway, 3 and a half hours left until the market close, and I don't think those pairs will reach the target today. So we'll see how they goes next week. Have a great weekend and Happy Idul Fitri! :)

Friday, September 18, 2009

USD/JPY Touched Resistance Channel/Trendline

Above is USD/JPY 4 hour chart. Strong buying at 90.20 area sent the pair back to its previous level around 91.60 before closing below 50 EMA and within the downtrend channel. 15 minutes to candle close, the pair seems to trapped between the channel and a broken trendline below. Volatility is low until a breakout occurs. 91.72 (50% Fibo) could trigger another selling if the pair breaks the resistance trendline. I the opposite, USD/JPY should test 90.20 support again.

Cable Break Below, Target @ 1.6325

Above is GBP/USD 4 hour chart. The pair break its trendline after making spikes in last 3 candles. I shorted it for 1.632 area (AB projection from C), about 120 pips from current price. There are several support actually before the 1.632 which are the Fibonacci retracement levels of 1.6113 (September 1st low) to 1.6741 (September 11th high). Current high at 1.6568 will be the stop loss area.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

1st Target Reached, 146 Next

Above is GBP/JPY 4 hour chart. The pound lose further since my last post and reached 1st target at 149.4 area, 149.44 to be precise. The bearish movement could continue today following the trendline break (see chart). However, the pair must close below 149.40 support first. Furthermore, 161.8% extension of the last movement (1-2-3) is near the second target mentioned in previous post, which is around 146. See the screenshot for support levels. Happy trading :)

Cable Found Support, Wait For Breakout

Cable H4 Chart

Cable D1 Chart

Above are GBP/USD chart in daily and 4 hour time frame. The pair found support at 1.6427 target (see previous post), which is the 50% retracement of BC (purple dash Fibo). The trend is not clear although I still hope that the pair will at least reach the neckline. I plan to sell if it goes to the resistance are (risk area) or if the pair closed below 1.6427 in 4 hour chart. Have a nice day guys.

USD/JPY Could Be On The Move To Test Support

Above is USD/JPY 4 hour chart. The pair resumed the downtrend until 90.2 before retracing as high as 91.63 today. As we can see from the chart, there seems to be a breakout of its retracement channel. The pattern almost identical with prior retracement. There is still some room above to 91.75 - 92.11 area, which are 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement respectively. Meanwhile, I believe that 90.20 support will be though to break. Nevertheless, I already shorted the pair at 90.97 for 60 pips. Wish me luck!

Monday, September 14, 2009

Cable Hit Resistance, Sell Now!

Cable H4 Chart
Cable D1 Chart

Above is Cable 4 hour chart. The pair bounce from 1.6688 resistance which I mentioned in my last Cable post. The resistance turns out to be the 61.8% retracement of 'A' to 'B'. I already enter a position near that resistance, targeting the 50% retracement of 'A' to 'B'. I also add Fibonacci of 'B' to 'C' (purple dash) to anticipate a breakout from the current uptrend channel.

Looking at bigger time frame, the pair could be forming head and shoulder reversal pattern. However, it must break the neckline to complete this pattern. If the neckline breaks, the target is the 50% Fibo retracement of 1.3502 low to 1.7042 at 1.5272, exactly 1382 pips from GBP/USD current price.

Sunday, September 13, 2009

Look For 149.40 Area

Above are British Pound/Yen 4 hour chart. The pair finally drop to 150.83 support on Friday after a breakout of its ascending triangle pattern, following a drop in dollar/yen. I'm relief that I have closed all my positions. However, I'm still looking for shorting the pair at resistance next week. The bear still in favor after it failed to take 153.3 resistance. Another support below 150.83 is around 149.4 area. Based on AB=CD projection, 146 area could also be a good target, which is near 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Have a nice weekend :)