Monday, December 24, 2012

$EURUSD Technical Outlook

EURUSD DAILY CHART - Medium-term outlook remain bullish above 1.2660. First target is 61.8% of 1.2040 to 1.3170 from 1.2660 at 1.3370.

EURUSD HOURLY CHART - Weekly outlook suggest short-term reversal below 1.3300 (last at 1.3186) targeting 50% retracement level at 1.3091. 

Friday, December 21, 2012

$XAUUSD Testing 61.8% Retracement Level

XAUUSD DAILY CHART - Gold found some support near 61.8% retracement level at 1642, which could be the bottom of a possible ABC correction pattern. I am looking to buy the pair targeting 1671 and 1700 with stop loss below this month low.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Monday, December 10, 2012

$AUDUSD Outlook

$AUDUSD DAILY CHART - Testing 1.0500 resistance at the moment with next resistance seen around 1.0600.
$AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART - Last week price movement signals trend continuation, so outlook is bullish as long 1.0400 support holds.

Monday, December 03, 2012

$GBPUSD Outlook

Cable was moving sideways between 1.5960 and 1.6060  last week. The pair maintained its two week uptrend pattern but it needs to break above 1.6070 to confirm trend continuation. Break below 1.5900 should bring 1.5787 and 1.5665 in focus.

GBPUSD DAILY CHART - Waiting for a breakout.

GBPUSD 4-HOUR CHART - Targeting 1.6170  if 1.6050/70 resistance broken

$USDJPY Outlook

Still very bullish for $USDJPY. I am gonna look to buy the pair, betting that it will reach 83.00 in short term, as long it holds above 81.69.

USDJPY HOURLY CHART - Possible uptrend continuation.

USDJPY DAILY CHART - Just to be prepared if the pair break above 83.00.

Saturday, December 01, 2012

$XAUUSD Outlook

$XAUUSD fell sharply this week from 61.8% level of October downtrend around $1,748 but quickly found support around $1,705. I think it is the key level to keep the  short-term bull scenario alive. Upside targets are $1,768 (78.6% of $1,795.1 to $1,671.9) if it can hold above $1,748 (61.8%). A slip below $1,700 should trigger sell-offs targeting $1,670. 

$XAUUSD 4-Hour Chart - Short-term bullish scenario.
$XAUUSD Daily Chart - Bearish scenario if price move below $1,700.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

$USDJPY Update

The pair is currently forming correction pattern. Dollar weakened  to 81.85 earlier today but quickly rebound above 82.00. I expect price movements between the projected trendlines targeting 81.50. US home sales data will surely be the main focus. A surprise will likely keep USDJPY in its current pattern while focus will then shift to Japan retail sales and another set of US data on Thursday.

$USDJPY 4-Hour Chart  

$USDJPY 1-Hour Chart

$USDCHF Update

The downside momentum diminished as USDCHF found support near neckline and holds above 0.93 at the moment. I expect price action ranging between 0.9300 and 0.9400 for tomorrow and breakout at the end of the week. Break above 0.9400 will bring uptrend scenario back in focus. On the other hand,  I expect USD sell-off targeting 0.9100.



Monday, November 26, 2012

$USDJPY Outlook Next Week

Link to EURJPY outlook.

$USDJPY MONTHLY CHART - Targeting 87.00 if the pair can hold above 82.40 at the end of the month. 

$USDJPY WEEKLY CHART - It seems that it has the momentum to break resistance but better to protect some profit here and double check your calendar.
$USDJPY DAILY CHART - Daily close below broken trendline may trigger correction to 81.50. Other than that, I expect to see a fight to break 83.00.

$EURJPY Outlook

$EURJPY MONTHLY CHART - Technically speaking, this pair promise a conclusion of a major downtrend.

$EURJPY WEEKLY CHART - Some possible targets for uptrend scenario.

$EURJPY DAILY CHART - Upside target for next week.

Friday, November 23, 2012

$GBPUSD Technical Analysis

$GBPUSD 4 Hour Chart - Cable failed to break 61.8% Fan Line on second attempt. Momentum suggest further weakness.

$GBPUSD Daily Chart - I expect price action moving between 61.8% and 50% Fan Line.

Thursday, November 22, 2012

$USDCHF Chart Update

$USDCHF 4 Hour Chart - Correction reached 50% retracement level. Reversal of this 2 week downtrend should test last week high (0.9511). 

Monday, November 19, 2012

$USDCHF Trading Plan

USDCHF D1 - I expect uptrend continuation for the following weeks.

USDX Daily Chart - Going to watch that June low (blue line) closely.

Friday, November 16, 2012

$EURGBP Update

$EURGBP Daily Chart - I drew another trendline as adjustment from my initial one and keep my bearish view. Price has been moving between these trendlines for the past two days and I'm hoping to see breakout today.   

Thursday, November 15, 2012

$NZDUSD Update

$NZDUSD D1 chart - Bounce from October low at the moment. Break below should target next support at 50% Fib retracement level at 0.7903 and I'm hoping to see 0.76468 after that.

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Friday, November 09, 2012

$XAUUSD and $USDX Follow Up Analysis

Gold gained for the 4th day while dollar index consolidate. It reach the mentioned correction target at 50% fib retracement level of October downtrend (x-a) at 1733.
I think we may see a correction pattern forming in the next few weeks (or even until end of year), testing this month low. Daily momEMA(20) still below momEMA(50) and I'm hoping to see 14-day momentum back below 100 level.

$USDX Daily chart - Dollar on demand.
$XAUUSD daily chart - Strong resistance around 1737

Thursday, November 08, 2012

NZDUSD Analysis

NZDUSD 4 hour chart - Next target 61.8% Fibo Level.

NZDUSD daily chart - 0.7914 as ultimate support to maintain uptrend view.

Wednesday, November 07, 2012

EURUSD Sell Target

EURUSD daily chart - Sustained below 55-day SMA. Waiting for break below 38.2% Fibo level.

GBPJPY Analysis

GBPJPY 4 hour chart - Waiting for the break.

GBPJPY Daily Chart - Sell target at 55-Day Simple MA.

Dollar Index Update

#USDX Daily Chart - Targeting 61.8% level above 80.70 (38.2% Fib retracement)

#USDX 4 hour chart - Wait for break above 38.2% Fibonacci level

Gold Update

Gold gained back almost half of its downtrend from 1795.10 (Oct 5th high) to 1671.90 (Nov 5th low) after Obama reelected for second term. Oscillator indicates overbought but there is no sign of trend continuation yet. So I expect consolidation pattern to emerge before a breakout to test the November 5th low at 1671.90. Break from that support level would suggest a-b-c correction pattern of its larger scale trend (uptrend) targeting 1642 (61.8% retracement) and 1600.3 (78.6% retracement).

XAU/USD 4 Hour Chart - Multiple downtrend continuation scenario

USDCHF Bullish Setup

I am bullish on this pair as the chart suggests. My first target is around 0.9600/9700 with stop below last month low at 0.9213. I think it will be reached before this month ends. Look for oscillator reversal signals on lower time frame for entry positions.

USDCHF Daily Chart

Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Gold: Resistance at 1683.2

  • Testing 1683.2 resistance at the moment. Will it hold??
  • Oscillators indicate oversold.
  • MAs on Momentum cross up on hourly, indicates minor uptrend or correction on larger trend scale.
  • Next target at 61.8% and 78.6% level at 1642 and 1600.3 respectively.
  • Next resistance at 1700.4 (38.2% level of 1547.3 to 1795.1).
Gold Daily Chart

Gold 4 Hour Chart
Gold Hourly Chart

Sunday, April 15, 2012

GBPJPY Could Reach 125.36 Next Week

The pair dropped further this week, although it failed to reach 38.2% level  at 127.27 as I suggested on my previous post. The good news is I believe that the correction phase is not over yet. The 23.6% level at 129.64, which acted as resistance this week remain unbroken on daily time frame, despite of several movements above it on Monday and Tuesday. In fact, the week low was created not long after it went back below 127.27. 

Now it will be very disturbing for me if I don't see the pair reach at least the 50% level, especially after that firm looking bearish candle on Friday. I have checked the outlook for USDJPY and GBPUSD hoping for confirmation. While there is still a rising trendline below GBPUSD current price, the other pair closed just below 38.2% level on daily time frame. Or the way I see it, a break of that level on weekly candle. So there is the confirmation I needed and I'm going to look to place short trades as early as possible.