GBPJPY Analysis

GBPJPY 4 hour chart - Waiting for the break.

GBPJPY Daily Chart - Sell target at 55-Day Simple MA.

GBPJPY: Dying To See A Hammer

After gaining against JPY for 2 days, pound sterling started to give it all back. The current rate is 129.54 with support trendline at 129 area. As I said in my previous post, there is no sign for a reversal, yet. Meaning, I'm dying to see a hammer or at least a long lower shadow/tail/wick on daily chart on the following days. No no no.. the hammer wouldn't be my buy signal, just a first signal for a bullish movement. The price should close above 130.70 to confirm the hammer. Now you might think that confirmation would be my buying signal. Well, false again. But we almost there. After closing above 130.70 area, the pair should retrace right? That would be my buying signal. Now, lets wait for that moment to happen.

GBP/JPY Update

Following my last post on GBPJPY titled 'what if', the pair had tested 135 level before turning back to its previous level. Current rate for this pair is 129.38, which is also at the support trendline. So far, there is no sign of reversal. Nonetheless, the price did find some support in this area. I would suggest a neutral view, with a possibility to rise further to the upper trendline. Closing below previous bottom would trigger bearish view. Other than that, the scenario for 141.20 area is still in play.

GBP/JPY Gonna Break Above?

The pair is currently consolidating between 130.35 and 128.63 following the fall from 133.59. At this point, we wait. If the price break above the resistance, the it is the double bottom pattern. The target would be around 131.40. If the support broken after ADP released, then the downtrend should continue..at least until Friday. Ok then lets see what happen in the next few minutes. Enjoy the show!

GBP/JPY: H1 and H4 Chart

GBP keep on gaining against Yen after a reguler-hidden divergence combination on hourly chart. At the moment, GBPJPY is facing the resistance trendline but still maintain above 144.70 level. Further pull back may be seen until 144.00/30 area. 4-hour resistance trendline is now around 146.50, but 145.50 area is enough for me ;P

GBP/JPY Break H4 Trendline

The pair reach 61.8% retracement of 143.59 to 132.00 at 139.16. It reversed since and made a nice bearish candle on weekly chart. It also break H4 trendline and the pair might continue the down trend. Support levels can be seen around 135.16 first and 133.88 next before testing 132.00. As for risk, I think 38.2 level (136.43).

GBP/JPY at 61.8% Retracement, Buy Signal

So the pair fail to break 137.80 and reach 61.8% retracement (135.50) near the support trendline. There are no signs of reversing yet but I already put my buy limit order :P Nevertheless, it seems like a good price to enter long. My stop loss is below 134.90. The target should be the resistance trendline again near 137.80 but I'm only going to take 40-50 pips.

GBP/JPY Reach Target

This is an update from my last post. The pair has reached target at 137.80. The trend in hourly is still bullish but I would wait a break above that 50% Fib level to confirm another move up. Another resistance is around 139.16 which is 61.8% Fib level. On the other hand, GBP/JPY might go down to the support channel again or look for 50% to 61.8% retracement (between 135.5 and 136.00).

GBP/JPY Short Signal

Ok, just a quick update. The pair currently testing the 55 hour EMA and trendline in hourly. I took a short position at 149.77 and again at 150.20 targeting 38.2% retracement at 148.06. Stop loss above the swing high and white trendline. Happy trading!

GBP/JPY: Wait For Breakout

Above are GBP/JPY H4 and H1 chart respectively. The pair opened below H1 trendline just now after consolidation on Friday. Hourly trend is up, and a further retracement from Friday's high (149.27) can't be ruled out. Another possible scenario is to make a higher high to test the broken neckline on daily chart (around 150.80) before testing the 146.72 support. Well, nothing much I can say. Break of 149.27 or 146.72 would give a clearer view. I just hope it will happen soon. The longer I wait, the more likely I snap and flip a coin for long or short! ;p

GBP/JPY 50% Fib at 151.38

Here is another setup on GBP/JPY. Above is the daily chart. Key S/R is at 146.72, below that level then the outlook change to bearish again. I entered long targeting 151.38 (50% Fib) and 154.14 (61.8% Fib). Ok that is all for now. Happy Trading!

Lower Low And Lower High In Hourly

The pair closed at 142.21 last week after. The pair failed to take out 143 resistance and the H4 channel remained intact. The trend in H1 chart is still bullish derived from 30/50 EMA and QQE above 50. However, GBP/JPY did make a LL and LH, which may be an early signal of a downtrend continuation. Immediate support can be seen at 141.6 area while resistance is at 142.9 area. Take a look at the screenshot for trendlines and breakout target. Ok thats all. It's FOOTBALL TIME! ;) Hace a nice weekend guys!

Further Upside Next Week?

GBP/JPY H1 Chart

GBP/JPY D1 Chart

Above are GBP/JPY daily and hourly chart. Since last analysis, the pair had retraced as high as 144.51 and drop again to 141 area after the release of US unemployment data on Friday. However, huge buying at 141 area sent the pair flying to 142.85, eating up sellers who held their short position - just like me :( Anyway, short-term outlook is bullish with a reversal possibility based on the double bottom pattern. First test is 144.45 area and 145.22 next (23.6% retracement from 163.06 to 139.71). Downside should be limited by 141 support. Clear break below 141 will change the outlook to bearish again with 135.71 target.

Reached 141 Target, 135.71 Next

GBP/JPY H4 Chart

GBP/JPY finally reached the 141 area target which is the 50% retracement of 118.80 to 163.06. The pair actually reached as low as 139.71, slightly breached the 200% Fibonacci extension of a-b-c. At the moment, the pair is trying to break its 23.6% retracement of 150.36 to 139.71 at 142.23 while 38.2% and 50% retracement levels are at 143.78 and 145.03 respectively. After so much pips down, a retracement toward 145 is very likely, although I will wait until it breaks current resistance. The outlook for GBPJPY is still bearish with 135.71 (61.8% retracement) as target after breaking 139.71 current low.

The Sterling Reach Support Area vs. Yen And Dollar

Above are Cable and GBP/JPY 4 hour charts. The British Pound had retraced and resume the fall against the Dollar and Yen since my last post. I have closed all positions now. A bounce is expected, but should be within the channel and below the broken support trendline (see charts). Below are the screenshots for both pairs before the drop (I intended to post the analysis before on Asian market but my connection failed me ;P). And don't forget to check my previous posts for mid-term downtrend target ok!

Pound Still Under Pressure, Break Below Trendline

GBP/JPY H4 Chart

GBP/USD H4 Chart

Above are GBP/JPY and Cable 4 hour chart. I added a position for each pair following those breakout signals. Target for GBP/JPY is the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension, around 146.6. As for Cable, I plan to take profit at neckline area, and then open another position if the neckline breaks. However, I suspect strong buying at those target area. Anyway, 3 and a half hours left until the market close, and I don't think those pairs will reach the target today. So we'll see how they goes next week. Have a great weekend and Happy Idul Fitri! :)

1st Target Reached, 146 Next

Above is GBP/JPY 4 hour chart. The pound lose further since my last post and reached 1st target at 149.4 area, 149.44 to be precise. The bearish movement could continue today following the trendline break (see chart). However, the pair must close below 149.40 support first. Furthermore, 161.8% extension of the last movement (1-2-3) is near the second target mentioned in previous post, which is around 146. See the screenshot for support levels. Happy trading :)

Expect A Breakout Today!

USD/JPY H4 Chart

GBP/USD H4 Chart

GBP/JPY H4 Chart

The British Pound/Yen is still in consolidation yesterday. Weak Dollar push Cable to 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.7042 to 1.6113 and sent USD/JPY to its support, while GBP/JPY stucked in tightening range. GBP/JPY kept on making lower highs and higher lows and form a symmetrical triangle pattern, which should breakout soon.

Furthermore, USD/JPY could continue it bearish movement after breaking 92.05 support. Cable could also fall today as long it doesn't break 50% Fibonacci resistance (1.6577). I already have a few shorts on GBP/JPY, so I really really reaallyyy hope that the pair will fall down today. My first target is 150.83 support (Friday's low) and 149.36 next. Wish me luck! And happy trading :)

Daily Chart

Above is the screenshot of GBP/JPY daily chart. The current uptrend from 118.80 may come to and end after reaching 163.06 on August 7. Drawing a fibonacci retracement from those bottom and top, we can see that the pair had closed below 23.6% level this week. We can also see that the broken support at 153.45 was tested today. Now it seems that we should anticipate further bearish for next week.

The next fibonacci level is th 38.2% retracement level at 146.16, near July 8 low at 146.74. However, the pair must break this week's low first at 151.05 before attempt to test 146.16/146.74 support area. I already have a position, entered at 151.73. It's floating in red now. And although I think that the pair could reach 38.2% level, I wouldn't wait until it reach that price to close my position. I'd prefer to enter another position later if there is any opportunity.

The Cold Open

Dear readers,

This blog will be dedicated for GBP/JPY trading. My intention is to provide technical analysis using some simple tools such as trendlines, fibonacci, and moving average. I have some preference about defining a trend and entry strategy. Lets just find a trend first, shall we? I hope that I can do my best to cover everything about GBP/JPY.

Regards,
Minyu2Fx