The market decided to screw me shortly after my last post. GBPUSD turned sharply after the PMI release. I decided to get out of the market during this pullback from euro session high just now. It could return to test the support level but I didn't like my level of exposure. You gotta trade the plan right?
My next move is to short cable again if the support breaks (grey area). 1.6127 will be my risk level while my target remain the same (see previous post).
There is a good chance that cable had completed another minor correction phase from its last impulse wave. First target is around 1.5864 which is the 100% projection of 1.6744 to 1.6058 from 1.6546. Longer term projection is around 1.5445 which is the 161.8% projection. As for risk assessment, a break above 1.6100 will change my view regarding this trend continuation.
My setup from my previous post didn't play right although the pair did made a lower low. Cable tested the 1.4781 support and reached as far as 1.4797. On daily chart, the candlestick make a reversal pattern (forgot what they call that pattern :P) and still forming a divergence in both 4-hour and daily chart. However, confirmation for uptrend in 4-hour time frame is above 1.5381. If you aggressive enough, you can buy now with stop loss below 1.4781, targeting 1.5381 first and 1.5581 (38.2% retracement of 1.6877 to 1.4781) after that. That is all. Have a nice weekend guys!
Above is Cable 4-hour chart. The pair broke the rising trendline and testing 1.4976 level at the moment. I'll keep my short position as long this level remain intact. Support suppose to be around 1.4872 (March 10th low). Ok thats all. Have a nice day guys!
Above is GBP/JPY 4 hour chart. It is pretty much the same with the one from the previous post. As expected, the pair went to 143.74 and tested 141 support again. However, it failed to break 141 area and reversed instead. The pair broken several resistance and now near 113% (yellow Fib) following the US unemployment release on Friday. Break of 113% (149.38) could bring the pair up to 23.6% level of 118.80 to 163.06 at 152.62. Failure to break this trendline could bring retracement to 146.20 area first, but I'll update on this since we don't see any sign of the top.
GBP/USD
Cable had a perfect negative correlation with GBP/JPY after the NFP release. The pair broke the support trendline and reached 1.6430 (38.2% level) before closing the week at 1.6474. I expect another ranging moves between that S/R lines (see chart) next week, at least until UK interest rate announcement.
Cable has reached the target mentioned in previous post while GBP/JPY broke the TL and went further down to 140.93 support. I am expecting GBP/JPY retracement toward 143.74 and Cable ranging between 1.6292 and 1.6466. For the downside, break of current lows should target the next Fibonacci level which is 61.8%.
After making a higher high from the previous week and formed double top formation, Cable broke the trendline/target from my previous post and touched 5th Nov low before closing at 1.6500. I think the pair will definitely test this month low at 1.6261 near 50% Fib level and the another support trendline.
Entry
I am anticipating 2 scenario of retracement toward the broken trendline: a lower low to 38.2% level at 1.6430 first or straight retracement to test the broken trendline near 23.6% level at 1.6601. The third scenario is a smooth move to 1.6300 area. So, I will enter short near 1.66 if Cable retrace or below 38.2% Fibonacci at 1.6430, 70 pips from current price.
GBP/USD break the rising trendline on daily chart early today. The pair currently testing the 13th November low after closing below 13-day EMA on 4 hour chart. Next support is the white trendline connecting the 5th and 12th November lows. If the pair sustain below that support, we might see the pair goes to 1.6280/90 support (lime green).
Just a quick update for GBP/JPY and GBP/USD hourly chart setup before the week starts. GBP/USD reachead 50% retracement after went as high as 1.6843 on Monday.The pair bounced from the falling trendline on Friday and I plan to enter on trendline breakout. GBP/JPY had a similar move with GBP/USD, tested the resistance on Monday, tested the support after that, and closed near the week open. Anyway, the is the same with GBP/USD. Thats all. Have a nice day guys! oh one more thing, I can't upload the chart from blogger so click the links below ok..
http://pic.gd/ae7dfd
http://pic.gd/1b6e30
Strong recovery last week sent the pair as high as 1.6398. The pair broke the neckline again around 1.6200/30 and maintain trading above that level before closing at 1.6353. The pair almost touch the upper channel, where I placed my sell order. I would love to see a divergence scenario similar with the previous high reversal. Nevertheless, we might see consolidation first between 1.6430 and 1.6230. we should watch the neckline area closely for confirmation of bearish continuation.
Ok..just a quick update. Above is GBP/USD hourly chart. I bought the pair targeting 1.6445, which is the D1 trendline (head to right shoulder). I 'll put my sell order there with tight SL. As for now, my SL is below 1.6222 (see screenshot for TLs and retracement level). All I need to do now is to follow the plan.
The pair closed below the trendline last week after consolidating between 1.577 and 1.6125 and touched the downtrend channel. The break indicates downtrend continuation to 1.57 area (38.2% Fib) and 1.52 area next (50% Fib). However, the pair must break 1.577 low first for confirmation. A break outside the channel might brings another consolidation or even a higher recovery above 1.6125. For now, we should wait and see the week open.
Above is GBP/USD daily chart. The pair is in consolidation after the huge fall to 1.5769. I'll keep my 1.5272 target as long the pair maintain below 1.604 in daily chart. However, support can be seen at 1.5769 and 1.569 (38.2% retracement). Break above 1.604 will target 1.6125 (30 Sept. high) and 1.6206 (23.6% retracement).
