Thursday, October 29, 2009
From last post, GBP/JPY finally reached target at 148.06 (38.2% retracement) after 3 days. It crossed above initial SL actually but remained below the neckline. The pair bounced after slightly breached the 38.2% level as high as 149.29 now and touched the falling trendline. I shorted the pair at 149.17 targeting the 50% level at 146.46. Notice that that level set near 38.2% level of 118.8 to 163.06. I put my initial stop loss around 149.7.
Monday, October 26, 2009
Ok, just a quick update. The pair currently testing the 55 hour EMA and trendline in hourly. I took a short position at 149.77 and again at 150.20 targeting 38.2% retracement at 148.06. Stop loss above the swing high and white trendline. Happy trading!
Sunday, October 25, 2009
The recovery continued as high as 153.22 (near 23.6% Fib level of 118.80 to 163.06) before closing the week at 150.04, below 200 day EMA and neckline, and formed a shooting star candle. A top might be in place and the pair could test 139.7 again before 118.8, following the downtrend from 251.08 high.
However, it is still uptrend in smaller time frame and I suspect choppy movement toward the first retracement target at 146.46 (50% fib of 139.7 to 153.22), which should be provided by multiple trendlines below (check the hourly screenshot). Ok, have a nice weekend!
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Above are GBP/JPY H4 and H1 chart. From last post, the pair finally break above resistance and has reached target - which is the range of the sideways. I drew trendline on weekly chart and this could be the time for some significant fall, at least to test the 149.35 support. Below the rising trendline on H4 chart then we can target 146.71 support near.
Monday, October 19, 2009
Above are GBP/JPY H4 and H1 chart respectively. The pair opened below H1 trendline just now after consolidation on Friday. Hourly trend is up, and a further retracement from Friday's high (149.27) can't be ruled out. Another possible scenario is to make a higher high to test the broken neckline on daily chart (around 150.80) before testing the 146.72 support. Well, nothing much I can say. Break of 149.27 or 146.72 would give a clearer view. I just hope it will happen soon. The longer I wait, the more likely I snap and flip a coin for long or short! ;p
Sunday, October 18, 2009
This is my USD/JPY setup on hourly chart from last Friday. The pair has failed to sustain above 23.6% level of 101.43 to 88.00 (blue Fibonacci). Target for the retracement is around 90.33 support, which I suspect will bring another round for consolidation if not break below. Check the screenshot.
Strong recovery last week sent the pair as high as 1.6398. The pair broke the neckline again around 1.6200/30 and maintain trading above that level before closing at 1.6353. The pair almost touch the upper channel, where I placed my sell order. I would love to see a divergence scenario similar with the previous high reversal. Nevertheless, we might see consolidation first between 1.6430 and 1.6230. we should watch the neckline area closely for confirmation of bearish continuation.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Here is another setup on GBP/JPY. Above is the daily chart. Key S/R is at 146.72, below that level then the outlook change to bearish again. I entered long targeting 151.38 (50% Fib) and 154.14 (61.8% Fib). Ok that is all for now. Happy Trading!
Ok..just a quick update. Above is GBP/USD hourly chart. I bought the pair targeting 1.6445, which is the D1 trendline (head to right shoulder). I 'll put my sell order there with tight SL. As for now, my SL is below 1.6222 (see screenshot for TLs and retracement level). All I need to do now is to follow the plan.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Dollar recovery continued since the market open this week and now has touched 90 resistance area which is also the H4 downtrend channel and 78.6% Fib level of 97.78 to 88.00. I decided to short the Dollar against Yen with stop above the channel. First support can be seen at the week open at 89.5 and the 88.6% Fibo level at 89.12.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
The pair closed below the trendline last week after consolidating between 1.577 and 1.6125 and touched the downtrend channel. The break indicates downtrend continuation to 1.57 area (38.2% Fib) and 1.52 area next (50% Fib). However, the pair must break 1.577 low first for confirmation. A break outside the channel might brings another consolidation or even a higher recovery above 1.6125. For now, we should wait and see the week open.
The pair closed at 142.21 last week after. The pair failed to take out 143 resistance and the H4 channel remained intact. The trend in H1 chart is still bullish derived from 30/50 EMA and QQE above 50. However, GBP/JPY did make a LL and LH, which may be an early signal of a downtrend continuation. Immediate support can be seen at 141.6 area while resistance is at 142.9 area. Take a look at the screenshot for trendlines and breakout target. Ok thats all. It's FOOTBALL TIME! ;) Hace a nice weekend guys!
Tuesday, October 06, 2009
Above is GBP/USD daily chart. The pair is in consolidation after the huge fall to 1.5769. I'll keep my 1.5272 target as long the pair maintain below 1.604 in daily chart. However, support can be seen at 1.5769 and 1.569 (38.2% retracement). Break above 1.604 will target 1.6125 (30 Sept. high) and 1.6206 (23.6% retracement).
Sunday, October 04, 2009
GBP/JPY H1 Chart
Above are GBP/JPY daily and hourly chart. Since last analysis, the pair had retraced as high as 144.51 and drop again to 141 area after the release of US unemployment data on Friday. However, huge buying at 141 area sent the pair flying to 142.85, eating up sellers who held their short position - just like me :( Anyway, short-term outlook is bullish with a reversal possibility based on the double bottom pattern. First test is 144.45 area and 145.22 next (23.6% retracement from 163.06 to 139.71). Downside should be limited by 141 support. Clear break below 141 will change the outlook to bearish again with 135.71 target.